Draft for Jennifer’s editorial review · Sources checked 24 October 2026 · AI-assisted English explainer.
You choose a card. You put your ballot in the box. But the list you supported finishes below the electoral threshold. Have you thrown your card away?
For winning seats in that election, your vote does not help elect anyone from that list. But it remains a valid vote, recorded in the results. Calling it “wasted” describes the loss of parliamentary representation; it does not decide whether expressing support had value to you.
The rule: at least 3.25% of valid votes
A list needs at least 3.25% of all valid votes nationwide to take part in allocating the Knesset’s 120 seats. A list below that line receives no seats—even if it misses by a small number of votes. The line applies to the candidate list on the ballot, which may contain more than one party. Source: Knesset electoral-threshold explainer ↗
Your vote is counted—but it does not become a seat
There are two different stages. First, valid votes for every list are counted to determine which lists meet the threshold. Then seats are distributed using the votes for the qualifying lists. Votes for lists that fall short are excluded from this second stage. They are not the same as invalid ballots. Source: Israel Democracy Institute, how votes become seats ↗
Your ballot is not automatically transferred to your second choice, a larger allied party or the largest party. The 120 seats are divided among qualifying lists. With fewer votes included in that calculation, their shares are measured against a smaller pool. That is an indirect effect of the rules, not a literal transfer of your vote. Source: Knesset seat-allocation explainer ↗
A small example
Can a surplus-vote agreement save the vote?
No. A surplus-vote agreement is used in allocating remaining seats after both lists have qualified. Each must reach the threshold separately. If one fails, its votes do not rescue or transfer to its partner through that agreement. Running together as one candidate list is a different arrangement. Source: Israel Democracy Institute, surplus-vote agreements ↗
So how do you judge whether a list has a realistic chance?
It helps to separate three questions: Does the list reflect your views? How likely is it to cross the threshold? And, if it wins seats, what role might it play in the Knesset? Winning seats and joining a governing coalition are different outcomes.
A poll can inform the second question. It cannot settle it. Read several recent polls where available, including their fieldwork dates, sample, method and reported uncertainty. A poll’s overall margin of error is not a guaranteed interval for each small party or a calculated probability of crossing the threshold.
- Above the threshold in a poll: projected to qualify in that poll, not guaranteed to qualify in the election.
- Near or below it: a material risk of no representation; the final count can differ.
- Not separately reported: unknown from that source. It does not mean zero support or proven failure.
Turnout, undecided voters, survey limitations and changes after fieldwork can affect the result. A party saying it will cross is a campaign claim, not independent evidence.
What the cards on Torekh mean
The guide currently displays a dated 23 October poll. Its quick view distinguishes lists projected to win seats from lists measured below the threshold. A displayed zero means below threshold in that poll, not zero voters. A dash means no separate figure was reported.
We removed the explicitly below-threshold tiles from “Shuffle the deck” to simplify the seat exercise. That interface choice is not a declaration that those lists cannot qualify. They remain in the full guide. Unreported lists are not automatically classified as below threshold, and the chart is an illustration based on one poll, not an election forecast.
Know the trade-off before choosing your card
If your priority is parliamentary representation in this election, the risk of falling below the threshold is relevant. A voter may also value expressing support for a smaller movement despite that risk. Torekh explains the consequences; the choice is yours.
Editorial status: This English draft awaits Jennifer Love’s review. It does not recommend a list, assign current probabilities or certify any party as “safe.” Hebrew and Arabic versions have not yet been prepared or reviewed.